Displaying items by tag: possible scenarios

As Donald Trump warns Iran that ‘time is running out’ for a nuclear deal (see ), and with US forces reportedly preparing for strikes on Iran within days, the consequences are far from clear. Limited ‘surgical’ attacks could hit Revolutionary Guard facilities, missile sites and nuclear infrastructure, but hopes for a rapid transition to democracy look highly optimistic, given past interventions elsewhere. Another scenario is the regime surviving but moderating its behaviour, though Iran’s leaders have historically resisted change. Many observers fear a collapse followed by hard-line military rule, or worse, nationwide chaos and conflict involving ethnic minorities. Iran has vowed retaliation, which could take the form of missile and drone attacks on US bases or warships, or mining the Strait of Hormuz, which is a vital shipping ‘chokepoint’, especially for global oil and LNG. Iran’s Arab neighbours, all US allies, are understandably jittery that Iran could attack them. The most dangerous scenario is escalation into a wider war with no clear end-state and severe regional and economic fallout.

The story of this war cannot yet be written, but we can pray about possible scenarios. One would be Russia and Ukraine grinding each other down with neither demonstrating capacity to land a tactically decisive blow. Pray the West will supply Ukraine with all that is needed to overcome Putin. Another could be Putin announcing a ceasefire, pocketing his territorial gains and declaring ‘victory’ with a land corridor to Crimea established. This might change the narrative but not end the fighting. Pray for God’s wisdom to saturate Ukraine’s leaders so that a theoretical peace is avoided, and for US, UK and European policymakers to ensure Russia's invasion fails, for the sake of Ukraine and the international order. Pray for Ukraine’s victory using its new long-range rockets. Pray that it can retrieve territory where Russian supply lines are stretched, causing the troops to withdraw to where they were before the invasion, as Western sanctions hit Russia's war machine.